Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have exchanged congratulatory letters in anticipation of Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing. This visit, scheduled for Tuesday evening, follows shortly after former U.S. President Donald Trump’s departure from China after a significant diplomatic summit. According to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, Xi and Putin are set to meet on Wednesday morning to discuss various aspects of their bilateral relations, including the potential development of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Marking the 30th anniversary of the strategic partnership between China and Russia, Xi emphasized the continued strengthening of ties between the two nations. This deepening relationship has raised concerns in the West, particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western diplomats and analysts believe that China’s economic and diplomatic support has played a role in sustaining the conflict. Since the onset of the war, China’s trade with Russia has reached unprecedented levels, with China purchasing a significant portion of Russia’s exports, especially in crude oil, contributing substantially to Russia’s war revenue.
Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air indicates that China has purchased over $367 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels since the war began. These acquisitions have bolstered China’s energy security, which has become increasingly crucial since disruptions in the Middle East affected oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, discussions on the Ukraine conflict and the Sino-Russian relationship were notably absent from Trump’s talks with Xi. Instead, their conversations centered around trade, Taiwan, and the Middle East conflict, with Trump mentioning China’s agreement on the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
During the discussions, Xi cautioned Trump about the risks associated with Taiwan, stressing the potential for conflict if not managed carefully. Despite leaving Beijing undecided on a significant arms deal with Taiwan, halting the sale could be seen as a victory for Beijing, which has long sought control over the self-governing island. Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that Taiwan might be a key topic in the meeting between Xi and Putin. Webster speculated that Beijing might seek additional fossil fuel agreements with Moscow to secure energy supplies should a conflict arise. Enhancing Russian oil pipeline capacity to China could significantly boost Beijing’s energy security in a possible Taiwan crisis.
Russia is eager for China to advance the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, which would expand the existing network’s capacity by 50 billion cubic meters. The tightly sequenced diplomatic visits by Trump and Putin to China have drawn significant attention, as it is rare for leaders of both the U.S. and Russia to visit the same country back-to-back in the post-Cold War era. This unique diplomatic choreography underscores the shifting dynamics in international relations, with China’s role being closely scrutinized by global observers.